Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Great Investing Lessons From 'The Science of Hitting'

Source: Gurufocus


It is well-known that Warren Buffett (TradesPortfolio) compared investing with baseball, as he believes that investing success also relies on waiting for the right pitch to come. He has recommended Ted Williams' book, "The Science of Hitting," and after reading it, here are some of the most important takeaways that we can apply to investing:


Practice: "And then to practice, practice, practice. I said I hit until the blisters bled, and I did; it was something I forced myself to do to build up those hard, tough calluses. I doubt you'd see as many calluses today. Most players hit with those golf gloves, to begin with, but more important, they don't take as much batting practice, as much extra batting practice, and that's how you learn."
Investing is serious business. It is well-known that some investors such as Buffett read through entire compendiums of stock information and went through thousands of filings at a young age. Knowledge is cumulative, and it helps a great deal to build the correct mental framework. However, as many professionals would tell us, it is one thing to read about how to swim and another one to get in the pool and do the work. Practice helps us retain a greater deal of information and lessons. The more we practice and learn, the better we become at our activity.

Hit according to your style: "Hitting a baseball - I've said this a thousand times, too- is 50 percent from the neck up, and the more we talk about it the more you'll see why that is so. The other 50 percent is hitting according to your style."

We can't expect to outperform the market without taking the time to understand how it works and what makes it tick. Most importantly, we have to discover why WE are how we are and understand what makes US tick. Analyzing one's behavior can be a challenging feat, it requires honesty and fortitude to recognize our weak spots. But it is only by doing this that we can improve and avoid falling into the same mistakes over and over again. This is a never-ending task, but we can reach a point where we avoid silly mistakes that are generally the ones that wear us out.

The three rules to hit by: "There are three things I would emphasize to any hitter before even considering the rudiments of a good swing. These three things are more constant than the swing itself, and every bit as important: 1) To get a good ball to hit, 2) Proper thinking and 3) Be quick with the bat."
This is one of the best lessons in the book. To get a good ball to hit can be the equivalent of finding a great business to invest in. The second one has a lot to do with bulding the correct mental framework, something that Charlie Munger (TradesPortfolio) would call the latticework of mental models that help us understand the main drivers of a company's success. The third one is also critical: When we find a great investment opportunity, we shouldn't be shy to swing away, which is investing a good amount of money with decision. This stems from the idea that while the market is efficient, it is not perfectly so, and we can seize those opportunities when we are able to recognize them.
What do you think?

Disclaimer: This Blog, its owner, creator / contributor is not a research analyst and expressing opinion only as an individual investor in Indian equities. He/She is not responsible for any loss arising out of any information, post or opinion appearing on this blog. Investors are advised to consult financial consultant before acting on any such information. All information in this blog is posted for personal study, All information posted on blog is as available in public domain and for educational purpose.

Sunday, April 24, 2016

DISHMAN PHARMACEAUTICALS LTD.

Good Opportunity for BONUS profit

CURRENT PRICE: 354


DISCLAIMER

ALL INFORMATION GIVEN HERE IS BASED ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WHICH IS DYNAMIC IN NATURE AND RELEVANT ONLY AT A PARTICULAR POINT OF TIME. USERS ARE ADVISED TO PURSUE THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ONLY AT THEIR OWN RISK AND FIRST CONSULT THEIR PERSONAL INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHEN MAKING INVESTMENT DECISIONS. WE ARE NOT LIABLE AND WE TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY LOSS THAT YOU INCURE BY TRADING/INVESTING ON OUR RECOMMENDATIONS. THESE CHARTS ARE POSTED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY.

RUSHIL DECOR

From Reco RUSHIL DECOR UP 22%.




DISCLAIMER

ALL INFORMATION GIVEN HERE IS BASED ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WHICH IS DYNAMIC IN NATURE AND RELEVANT ONLY AT A PARTICULAR POINT OF TIME. USERS ARE ADVISED TO PURSUE THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ONLY AT THEIR OWN RISK AND FIRST CONSULT THEIR PERSONAL INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHEN MAKING INVESTMENT DECISIONS. WE ARE NOT LIABLE AND WE TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY LOSS THAT YOU INCURE BY TRADING/INVESTING ON OUR RECOMMENDATIONS. THESE CHARTS ARE POSTED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY.

Monday, April 11, 2016

JINDAL STAINLESS (HISAR) LTD

DEMERGED OPPORTUNITY


CURRENT PRICE: 32.90

TARGET PRICE: 90



DISCLAIMER

ALL INFORMATION GIVEN HERE IS BASED ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WHICH IS DYNAMIC IN NATURE AND RELEVANT ONLY AT A PARTICULAR POINT OF TIME. USERS ARE ADVISED TO PURSUE THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ONLY AT THEIR OWN RISK AND FIRST CONSULT THEIR PERSONAL INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHEN MAKING INVESTMENT DECISIONS. WE ARE NOT LIABLE AND WE TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY LOSS THAT YOU INCURE BY TRADING/INVESTING ON OUR RECOMMENDATIONS. THESE CHARTS ARE POSTED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

TECHNICAL BET - RUSHIL DECOR LTD.

RUSHIL DECOR LTD: Buy at HS Breakout.

CURRENT PRICE: 210.90

TARGET PRICE: 300



DISCLAIMER

ALL INFORMATION GIVEN HERE IS BASED ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WHICH IS DYNAMIC IN NATURE AND RELEVANT ONLY AT A PARTICULAR POINT OF TIME. USERS ARE ADVISED TO PURSUE THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ONLY AT THEIR OWN RISK AND FIRST CONSULT THEIR PERSONAL INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHEN MAKING INVESTMENT DECISIONS. WE ARE NOT LIABLE AND WE TAKE NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY LOSS THAT YOU INCURE BY TRADING/INVESTING ON OUR RECOMMENDATIONS. THESE CHARTS ARE POSTED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY.

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Why I Pray For A Long Bear Market?

Source: Stable Investor

Everybody loves a bull market. Stocks are rising and so are people’s portfolios. So why is it that I pray for a bear market?




I remember a reader was annoyed with me, for publicly saying that I would love to see markets crash. I did answer him but that was more than 3 years ago.

I thought I will revisit the topic again as then, I was in late 20s.

Now I am 30. Not very old though. But ofcourse wiser than what I was 3 years back. :-)

So do I change my stance now?

No.

I still pray for a long bear market. Not very long though.

At 30, I have few decades worth of investing left in front of me. So since I will be a net buyer of stocks over the next decade (atleast), I will be happier to see falling prices. Even if markets remained where they are for next 10 years, it would work for me.

I anyways don’t need that money for next 10 years. Lower prices allow me to buy more for same amount being invested. When markets rise later, I will benefit from having bought more shares.

Think of it like this:

Case 1:

You invest Rs 1 lac every year in market that will continue to fall by an average 5% every year for 10 years. So with every passing year, a lac of rupees helps me buy more shares (units in this case). Once 10-year bear market is over, I have accumulated some units.

Now for next 10 years, I don’t invest anything and its a bull market – which grows at an average of +12% every year.

Result is that my Rs 10 lac investment becomes Rs 25 lac (calculations later).

Now lets reverse the turn of events.

Case 2:

We have a bull market for first 10 years (+12% growth). This is followed by bear market for next 10 years (-5% fall each year).

Result is that my Rs 10 lac investment (a lac each in first 10 year) ends up being just Rs 10.5 lacs (after 20 years)!

Here is the maths behind this:




So being young and having a decade or two before me, which scenario is preferable?

Ofcourse the first one. Atleast for me.

But if you are nearing retirement, then you don’t want a near-term bear market. Because you don’t have the benefit of time on your side. Also, if that’s the case, you should be looking at reducing your exposure to equity markets as you near the D-day.

You need to de-risk your retirement corpus from market volatilities. You don’t want to postpone your retirement because of a bull or a bear market. Though you might definitely want to prepone it. :-)

Now, I am sure you would be interested in knowing what would happen if we continued investing a lac every year even after the 10th year? That is, from Year 11 to Year 20.

Here is the result:


Its similar to first case.

Now ofcourse this a very theoretical exercise. Real markets are different and don’t go up or down in straight lines. I can even use figures that are more suitable to prove my case. :-)

But that will defeat the purpose.

I am only trying to say is that if you are young and can continue investing for many years to come, then a falling market in near-term will do a lot more good for you in long-term, than a rising one.

Note – If you have ignored reading the tables above, I suggest you do read it. Its important to understand why (atleast mathematically) it makes sense to have bearish markets when you are young.

Now lets see what Warren Buffett has to say about this. Below extract is from the 1997 Letter to Berkshire’s Shareholders:


I am not Buffett (nor do I am aim to be). But atleast you can have faith in what Warren Buffett says. Isn’t it? :-)

Bull markets make you happy because the notional value of your investments goes up. But it’s the bear markets that can make you wealthy in long term as you get to buy at low prices.

A bear market today is much better option than a bear market later on (when you need the money). It is that simple.

Ofcourse its easier said than done. A 10-year bear market can shake the faith of even hard-core investors. I am not saying that I can and will continue to stay invested 100% in a market, that is falling for years. But I will not be completely out of the markets too - knowing very well about the general nature of stock markets. Investing by definition means being optimist about the future.

I will make sure (or atleast try) to keep a part of my investments in markets. I might diversify across safer assets. But that doesn’t mean that I will be 'all-in' in debt.

So think about it…

If you are young, a bear market presents a golden opportunity to make some serious money in long-term.

But a very important point to understand here is that when you invest in stocks, a lot depends on how soon you need the money. If you need money within 5 years, ideally you should not be in markets. You don’t want to end up with a bear market when you need the money. That will be pretty bad and frankly, nobody knows how long a bear market will last. Only invest that money in equities, which you need after 5+ years.

Disclaimer: This Blog, its owner, creator / contributor is not a research analyst and expressing opinion only as an individual investor in Indian equities. He/She is not responsible for any loss arising out of any information, post or opinion appearing on this blog. Investors are advised to consult financial consultant before acting on any such information. All information in this blog is posted for personal study, All information posted on blog is as available in public domain and for educational purpose.